WAS KARADZIC HANDED OVER BY BELGRADE IN ANTICIPATION OF MLADIC'S DEATH? - August 5, 2008

If General Ratko Mladic had died and Radovan Karadzic had not yet been captured and sent to The Hague, Belgrade would have faced immense criticism for not having delivered either indicted war criminal. Delivering Karadzic to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, (ICTY), after Mladic’s death would have been viewed as reactive from the international justice perspective, too little too late. In Belgrade’s nationalist circles it would have been translated as giving in to the international pressure. By handing over Karadzic before Mladic’s presumably imminent death gives Belgrade the opportunity to appear forthcoming in its relationship with the European Union and the United Nations while allowing Mladic to go to the grave with all his secrets. Belgrade will be given the benefit of the doubt, while having achieved its most critical strategic interests in avoiding Mladic’s appearance before an international tribunal.
  

MLADIC NEAR DEATH?

 
It has long been rumored that General Ratko Mladic is suffering from a terminal illness, presumably cancer. In the last few weeks, Mladic’s imminent death has been reported by the regional media, and from several sources. Time will only tell how imminent Mladic’s death is, but it appears that his health is seriously in question.
 

THE CV OF AN INDICTED WAR CRIMINAL

 
General Ratko Mladic was the commander of the so-called Bosnian Serb Army. However, he also was always an officer of the Belgrade military, Serbia’s Army. He continued to hold rank, earn his pay from, and receive the necessary logistics, resources, (including men) and military support from the Serbian military throughout the war. Even before the war in Bosnia & Herzegovina, Mladic was a commander of the JNA, (Yugoslav Army), forces in Croatia. In Croatia, he was already engaged in ethnic cleansing and carving out the initial chunks for a “Greater Serbia” out of Croatian territory.

When Mladic crossed over to Bosnia & Herzegovina, he perfected his talent for mass murder and genocide. Srebrenica, along with Zepa, was only the last victim in a list of Bosnian/Herzegovinian towns like Prijedor, Foca, Visegrad and many others that the world has nearly forgotten.
 
In Bosnia & Herzegovina, Mladic also accomplished the feat of transforming his army into the so-called Bosnian Serb Army from the Serbian Army of Belgrade. With one motion, he switched decals on the otherwise same uniform, from JNA to “Bosnian Serb Army.”

On the level of personal responsibility, Mladic carries with him the sin of leading a campaign of mass murder, genocide, to carve out the Republika Srpska within Bosnia & Herzegovina. What had been ethnically heterogeneous villages, towns and cities were through mass killings and expulsions transformed into the ethnically cleansed Republika Srpska.
 

MLADIC'S GENOCIDAL "GIFT"

  
Mladic projected Srebrenica as the jewel of his achievements. In a genocidal pronouncement as he entered the town, he proclaimed on camera that Srebrenica is his: “gift to the Serb people” in the realization of a Greater Serbia.

That gift remains un-retrieved, as much a consequence of the Dayton Accords and the Euro-Atlantic policy that persists in saving Republika Srpska.

WAR OR PEACE, WITH GUN OF GENOCIDE HELD TO OUR HEAD

  
Since I was also one of the signatories of the Dayton Accords, I bear some accountability for Republika Srpska and Srebrenica’s current status therein. It was a choice between continuing war and the potential death of many, as one option, and, as the other, a flawed peace, a very bad peace, but nonetheless peace. Efforts to construct a better peace were as frequently met with Ambassador Richard Holbrooke’s threat that if the talks failed, the Bosnian/Herzegovinians would be labeled with the blame. Not to engage in second guessing, nonetheless under the same circumstances, I would encourage our delegation to engage in the poker match differently but still choose peace over war. That does not mean though that a substantively better peace was not to possible, and I resigned then and there in Dayton, my position as Foreign Minister, at least as a means to communicate my unwillingness to reconcile with this unjust and untenable result.

The choices today for the presumably democratically disposed Euro-Atlantic family should be much simpler. There is no war raging in the heart of Europe and genocide is not held as a gun to the delegation of Bosnia & Herzegovina. There are no talks pressurized and so designed to achieve any result projecting a conclusion “to end a war.” There is no longer Slobodan Milosevic to first seduce and then outplay the political representatives of the western powers. A peace for Srebrenica, for all of Bosnia & Herzegovina more consistent with shared values of democracy, openness and justice should not have insurmountable obstacles. Mladic’s gift to “Greater Serbia” persists by the will of those responsible for implementing peace in BiH, particularly the inertia of Euro-Atlantic policy.
 

THE BETRAYAL OF SREBRENICA, AND IN EFFECT OF THE UN AND NATO

  
Srebrenica should not have been overrun, (and subsequently the smaller sister town of Zepa a couple of weeks later), by Mladic, since they had the theoretical status of United Nations “safe areas,” and were formally accorded the very real protection of NATO. The role of some of the major global powers, or more accurately some of their representatives still calls out for full disclosure and a truly independent review. From the evidence that I have gathered, there was a “yellow” light given to Milosevic, Karadzic and Mladic’s forces to absorb these UN “safe areas,” and NATO “protected zones” into Republika Srpska, their project of Greater Serbia. The motive was to satisfy Milosevic’s Mladic’s and Karadzic’s conditions to agree to peace talks. Since the BiH Government would not cede these towns to become part of an ethnically cleansed and homogenized Republika Srpska, the yellow, green light, was accorded to Mladic and company to create their own facts on the ground that would be then cemented at the negotiating table. (Despite the overwhelming non-Serb populations of these towns, the western mediators, including Carl Bildt, Yasushi Akashi, General Bernard Janvier and Ambassador Richard Holbrooke tried at first to get the BiH Government, including me as Foreign Minister, to trade these enclaves and engage in population transfers, thereby abetting ethnic homogenization, cleansing. We refused). Therefore, our efforts to revert Srebrenica and Zepa to the authority of the Federation of BiH was responded to as a non-starter. If we persisted to press the point, we were told that this would collapse the talks, and the Government of BiH would be blamed for the failure and the continuation of war. Setting aside all other concerns, in our position of responsibility, it would be too expedient to risk the lives of BiH citizens to uphold our desire for a better peace and justice.

There was plenty of notice of Mladic massing his forces for an assault around Srebrenica, and then around Zepa. I was informed by Euro-Atlantic officials and intelligence over 40 days in advance. There is ample other evidence, including from the before mentioned US and European representatives and the independent ICTY officials of such foreknowledge. The UN and NATO could have interceded to confront the initial preparations and assault. The BiH Government, and I personally as Foreign Minister demanded, and even the Dutch, (with their lightly armed peacekeepers in Srebrenica), requested for the UN and NATO action that was promised to protect the safe area. It did not come. The UN and NATO, besides Srebrenica and Zepa, were also betrayed by its most powerful members with the consequences to their international credibility. (For more than a decade and facing threats to my personal reputation, I have made my suspicions and evidence known including to UN and ICTY investigators. Regardless of the ability of such institutions, at least for the immediate term, to act upon my information, I strongly feel that this is part of my responsibility to the victims and to justice).
  

MLADIC WAS NEVER IN HIDING

  
Mladic has not been hiding under some elaborate disguise either from western intelligence services or Serbian law enforcement. Even after he was indicted in 1995 by The Hague Tribunal and after NATO troops entered Bosnia & Herzegovina. Mladic continued to move throughout BiH freely, with and without his military detachment. He traveled through NATO checkpoints, not disguised but saluted as the commander of a friendly force. He enjoyed leisure activities while off duty, including skiing Bosnia’s slopes in public and photographed. (Karadzic continued to run his political party as well as economically corrupt enterprises from the shadows).

After several years, perhaps the tolerance for Mladic’s and Karadzic’s public presence and influence began to transform. However, no one tried to apprehend them. In fact, there is evidence that their relocation outside of BiH was requested and possibly assisted by big power officials, (again there are multiple sources for this assertion including former ICTY officials as well as media). By the end of 2000, Mladic was living openly in Serbia and Karadzic had finally ceded the real authority over his Serb Democratic Party and began to prepare for his new identity.
 

MLADIC HAS MANY SINS AND SECRETS TO CARRY TO HELL, BUT THE SOUL OF MULTILATERALISM AND THE REGION AND SERBIA'S FUTURE IS IN BALANCE

  
Obviously Karadzic has already had much to reveal, (from my perspective, to confirm and corroborate). Mladic would have even more to tell, both regarding the role of the big powers and his own Serbian government. Mladic, as a member of Belgrade’s military, would even by his presence before the International Tribunal be also an implicit indictment of Serbia’s role. If both Mladic and Karadzic went to the grave without facing the ICTY, this may have been too much for Belgrade to be forgiven. Even in the US and Europe the political climate is changing. The delivery of Karadzic was the lesser of two potentially damaging options. Mladic would be much more problematic.

We should also emphasize here that there is a small, but rather vocal group of individuals, NGO’s and media within Serbia & Montenegro that has clamored for Serbian war criminals to be arrested and turned over and for the full truth to be exposed to the Serbian people as well as international audiences. This minority is more forthcoming and courageous than most of Euro-Atlantic officialdom, and in the balance is the tug for majority of the citizens of Serbia and Montenegro. Serbia’s people need to be fully exposed to and to come to terms with what has been executed purportedly in their name. Maybe a new generation of progressive leaders in the US and Europe also needs a fresh start to free themselves of bad judgment, cynical deals and acquiescence to genocide endorse by the previous power brokers.

It is always a risky proposition to predict political winds combining with nature’s course. I would expect Mladic soon go to the grave, along with his over-packed luggage of sins and secrets. Perhaps I’m wrong, and I would hope that either the new generation of Euro-Atlantic leaders or Belgrade’s new government would not be so cynical. However, short term expediency has more frequently than not won out in western capitals when it comes to Balkan’s policies, and ultra nationalism in the region has recklessly dictated political appeal and the destinies of peoples and states. My educated guess is that when he dies, Mladic will be given a national hero’s funeral, and Serbia will not face real consequences. And, many from Belgrade, Moscow, Paris, London, Brussels to Washington will sleep better, at least for the moment.
  

Muhamed Sacirbey

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Mr. Muhamed Sacirbey holds B.A. degree in history and J. D. degree from Tulane University in New Orleans. He also holds M.B.A. degree from Columbia University. Prior to becoming Bosnia’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United Nations, he practiced as an attorney in New York City and worked for several years as an investment banker. He presently writes his book “A Convenient Genocide, in a fishbowl ” and is a commentator on human rights and political issues.

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