Our editor, Diego Arria, was interviewed by the Latin America Advisor, a publication of the Inter-American Dialogue organization.
Question: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced June 30 in a televised address that he is being treated for cancer in Cuba. Four days later, he returned to Venezuela to a hero’s welcome. While Chávez’s political opponents have joined supporters in wishing him a quick return to health, the situa- tion has prompted questions about the country’s governance in the short term, and about the implications of his illness on next year’s presidential elections and the country’s political system. What would happen if Chávez were unable to finish his term as president? Who would replace him? Is there a real risk that the political and social situation in Venezuela could turn chaotic as a result of Chávez’s ill- ness? How does Chávez’s illness affect the country as it struggles with inflation, crime, falling oil production and electricity shortages?
Answer Diego Arria, a member of the Advisor board and director of the Columbus Group in New York:
“My take from the statement of Chávez’s brother Adán, the governor of Barinas state, that the regime must be prepared for ‘non-electoral options’ clearly suggests that Chávez will not be in a condition to run for president next year. Our constitution foresees that if the president has completed four years of his six-year term (which Chávez has) and must leave office permanently, the vice president would finish his term. Chávez was forced to return to Venezuela because of the internal feud among his party leaders positioning themselves for a non-Chávez presidency. The question today: would Elías Jaua remain as vice president (The vice presidency is not an elected post, but one designated by the president)? He, together with Adán Chávez, represents the Cuban faction within the regime—opposed by the military faction and others who have enriched themselves and are fighting to protect their gains. In my view, the regime without Chávez will not have much of a chance to survive. Chávez is the only political figure in their midst. This would open the door to an even more dominant role for the armed forces and probably very serious conflicts among the regime’s factions. If I had to bet, I believe that Chávez has chosen his brother Adán to be the presidential candidate in 2012, banking on the Chávez name. No one else in his party has any importance. In this situation, we cannot forget the significance of Cuba in the final outcome. There are more than 60,000 Cubans in Venezuela. The Castro duet may end up having the last word as they receive 100,000 barrels of oil every day from Chávez.”
