Our editor Ambassador @Diego_Arria spoke to the Latin America Advisor about a possible presidential candidacy of Leopoldo Lopez in Venezuela.
Question: The Costa Rica-based Inter- American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) last month cleared oppo- sition leader Leopoldo López to run for Venezuela’s presidency next year. López, along with hundreds of other oppo- sition figures, was banned from running three years ago over controversial corrup- tion charges. President Hugo Chávez has criticized the court’s ruling, calling it part of an international system that obeys U.S. ‘imperial’ interests. Venezuelan electoral officials have said they are waiting for a decision by the country’s Supreme Court to determine if López is eligible. Is the Venezuelan government likely to comply with the IACHR’s ruling or will it uphold the ban? If López is allowed to run, what chance does he have of winning the oppo- sition’s nomination? How well-positioned is the opposition to compete against Chávez in next year’s elections?
Diego Arria: According to the Venezuelan Constitution, the interna- tional treaties subscribed by the state are considered to be above national laws. Such is the case of the 1969 American Convention of Human Rights, which established the IACHR. In the López case, the government has already expressed its opinion against the court’s ruling which, due to its political control over Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal, will most likely follow the regime’s instructions challenging the IACHR decision and the convention itself. Such a violation should prompt the OAS secretary general to ask the permanent council to pronounce itself on this fundamental matter. It is too early to anticipate the outcome of the February 2012 primaries. But what is clear is that the opposition is increasingly united and has a clear shot to win. The main obstacle will be the regime’s capacity to make it very unsafe for a transition. Winning the elections is not enough for a regime whose top military brass has publicly declared that the armed forces ‘are socialist and committed to Chávez’ and will not allow an opposition victory. Neither will the 60,000 Cuban mercenar- ies, nor the 125,000 militia members, the FARC and many international drug mafias that have found in Venezuela a convenient and safe haven to operate. We also cannot put aside the importance of Venezuela as the most important drug corridor of the region whose operatives will not easily give up their privileged sit- uation in Chávez’s Venezuela. A change in government will close them for business which today operates without interfer-ence.
